基于状态空间模型的政产学研资协同创新四螺旋影响因素实证研究

在三螺旋理论框架下，搭建政府、产业、大学、研究机构和资本部门四螺旋模型，运用文献归纳法选取多元主体协同创新6类影响因素，以主体间协同程度测度结果为因变量基础，利用状态空间模型动态分析这些因素影响方向、大小和趋势。实证结果表明，中国经济因素表现为促进作用持续提升；中国技术市场规模和创新产业规模表现为先抑制后促进，且促进作用不断提升；中国产品市场需求和创新投入表现为抑制作用持续提升；中国创新产出在时间上表现为促进作用先提升后下降并最终稳定的状态。最后，提出不同政策建议，以促进中国政产学研资协同创新体系后续发展。     

衡水市农户土地资源转出意愿的影响因素与行政干预

[目的]通过了解河北省衡水市农户土地转出的意愿状况,分析影响农户土地资源转出意愿的关键因素,并制定正确的战略决策,为构建农地适度规模化经营奠定理论基础,促进衡水市农民的现代化发展。[方法]文章结合调研情况,对样本区农户土地使用权流转行为进行了统计描述和分析研究,并运用Logistic模型对农户土地使用权转出意愿的影响因素进行了分析,找到了影响衡水市土地流转的关键性因素。[结果]研究表明,户主年龄、从事职业和文化程度、农户家庭非农收入以及农户家庭兼业人数等与农户土地转出意愿呈显著正相关关系,显著性数值分别为0. 018、0. 000、0. 010、0. 000、0. 028,而农户家庭农用机械数量则与农户土地转出意愿呈显著负相关关系,显著性数值为0. 033。此外农户社会保障程度和农户对政府土地流转的相关政策了解程度等因素也影响着农户土地流转的意愿。[结论]影响农户土地转出意愿的显著性因素包括家庭非农收入、户主年龄和职业;另外,户主的年龄、职业、文化程度、非农收入、家庭兼业人数和农用机械数量均是影响农户土地转出意愿的重要内容。     

The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries

This paper investigates the influence of government debt and primary balance on long-term government bond yields in 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the period 2000–2013. The results indicate that a one percentage point increase in the stock of government debt is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 2.7–4 basis points, while a one percentage point increase in the primary deficit to GDP ratio is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 12.9–24.3 basis points. We also find evidence of non-linearities in the debt-interest rate relationship, whereby the threshold after which the impact of debt turns from negative to positive is significantly lower than in advanced economies.     

Government support and bank performance during the 2007–2008 financial crisis

Though previous studies suggest a state participation has a negative impact on banks, this paper highlights the potential benefits of state ownership for confidence and stability in the post-crisis period that can outweigh the inefficiencies and potential for corruption of political intervention. We find that the state guarantees are valuable during the crisis. The negative (positive) relation between state ownership and bank profitability (risk) is mitigated in the post-crisis period. Financially troubled banks that receive a transfer payment or capital injection experience improved performance during the post-bailout period.     

地方政府人才引进政策促进了区域创新吗？——来自准自然实验的证据

高技能人力资本对于我国经济转型的重要性不言而喻。本文以2009—2012年间39个城市集中出台的地方人才引进政策为准自然实验,采用多期政策的双重差分法,结合机制分析和异质性分析,探究了人才政策出台前后区域创新能力的变化及其背后的机制和深层次原因,并分析政策效应在不同的地区营商环境、科教事业投入力度、知识产权保护程度下的差异。本文主要结论包括,地方人才引进政策总体上提高了当地的专利授权总量和专利价值总量;显著增加了研发投入的规模,但创新效率没有得到明显提升;在营商环境较差的地区,政策的效应侧重于提高专利数量,营商环境较好的地区则侧重于提升专利价值;在科教投入力度本身就很大的地区,政策效果较小,在科教投入弱的地区效果会更明显;在知识产权保护程度弱的地区,政策效果更多地表现为提高专利数量,保护程度强的地区,则侧重于提升专利价值。上述结论对地方政府优化人才激励政策、实施创新驱动发展战略具有一定的政策启示。     

不同融资约束情景下政府补助与企业成长——基于政府补助相关性分类视角

政府补助按照相关性分为收益性政府补助与资产性政府补助,在不同融资约束情景下,两类政府补助对企业成长影响存在差异,基于此,选取中小板上市企业2011-2017年样本数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,收益性政府补助对企业短期成长具有促进作用,对企业的长期成长无显著影响；资产性政府补助对企业长期成长具有促进作用,对企业的短期成长无显著影响。随着融资约束程度逐渐提高,收益性政府补助与资产性政府补助对企业成长的促进作用逐渐减弱,融资约束对企业成长的抑制作用明显增强。     

Experimental evidence on the resilience of a cap & trade system for land consumption in Germany

The German government has committed to substantially limiting future land consumption. Among the most prominently discussed policy instruments is the implementation of a cap & trade system for land consumption, in which a limited amount of certificates is allocated to and traded by municipalities. Since these certificates would be a prerequisite for conducting building projects, this system is expected to reduce urban sprawl and foster the efficient allocation of land consumption projects. While previous empirical studies have supported these projections, the potential fragility of a cap & trade system in the case of macroeconomic shocks has not been considered. In three laboratory experiments, we simulate the impact of economic and budgetary crises within a cap & trade scheme for land consumption. We find that a market-based system succeeds in compensating macroeconomic disturbances with only minor welfare losses. Certificate prices in auctions and trading are somewhat more volatile before shocks, yet normalize afterwards. Trading volumes and the specifics of project realizations remain largely unaffected. Unrelated to the macroeconomic shocks, auction and market prices persistently diverge, leading to income redistributions to the state. Overall, our evidence supports the introduction of a market-based certificate scheme to reduce land consumption in Germany due to its resilience against potential shocks.     

Government intervention,sectoral productivity growth and structural transformation

This article examines the long-term impact of government intervention and sectoral productivity on structural transformation. We construct a multi-sector Dynamic General Equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates government intervention as a force of structural transformation. The government affects the economy through taxation and lump sum transfers. We show that in the steady state, a reduction in the tax rate and an increase in sectoral productivity will decrease the agricultural employment share, and when nonhomotheticity of preference is strong enough, these changes can also increase the share of services employment.     

Structuring an effective human error intervention strategy selection model for commercial aviation

Flight safety cannot be compromised. Thus, commercial airlines should constantly develop safety management strategies to mitigate the diverse hazardous factors in flight operations. Given the constraint of organizational resource, a commercial airline may not have sufficient resources to implement all the necessary strategies simultaneously. This study uses a well-structured process to develop a qualitative evaluation model that will enable airlines to identify human errors and select an intervention strategy with the highest success potential. To clarify the decision problem, the Human Factors Intervention Matrix framework is utilized to construct the decision hierarchy. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to attain the priorities of potential alternative strategies for various unsafe acts. Finally, Zero-One Goal Programming models are formulated to select an optimal portfolio based on the specific target and the available organizational resources. An empirical study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model. According to the results of the combined model, an optimal portfolio, including the intervention approaches of organizational/administrative, human/crew, and operational/physical environment, can remediate four unsafe acts, namely, decision errors, skill-based errors, perceptual errors, and violations, under resource constraints of the organization.     

The role of dairy company policies in support of farm green infrastructure in the absence of government stewardship payments

Intensive dairy farming has substantial impacts on freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. Determining how to mitigate them while increasing production is driving the quest for sustainable milk production internationally. Green infrastructure (G.I.) provides private and public ecosystem services, including mitigation of farming environmental impacts. However, there are implementation barriers among farmers. New Zealand government supports farmer self-regulation as long as farmers meet environmental targets. Farmers are neither compensated for reducing environmental impacts, nor for setting aside G.I. in support of nature conservation. Dairy companies are under increasing pressure to ensure socially acceptable milk production practices among farmer suppliers. They may play a role in encouraging farmers to implement G.I. as a way of helping farmers meet regulatory compliance, and best farming practice. Using a content analysis of company policies, the role of dairy companies in encouraging G.I. among farmers is explored. Results indicate companies are concerned about the effects, and perception, of poor environmental farming practices on their profitability, and have developed some riparian G.I. policies, with government and farmer support. However, policies are farm-focused and are limited to one year, and thus lack the capacity to encourage G.I. in support of key ecosystem services, such as water cleansing and support for indigenous biodiversity that require landscape scaled networks and longer periods. Even at the farm scale, a majority of companies lack policies that encourage significant G.I. networks. Policies suggest companies, and by extension farmers, lack sufficient motivation to protect or restore them voluntarily. Under these conditions, significant G.I. is unlikely to develop under self-regulation, unless supplemented through motivating government stewardship payments.